Russia’s Military Was Great Until It Wasn’t (msn.com) The essay above from The Atlantic is an excellent reminder that those interested in trying to understand war and warfare should stop listening to people who depend on counting and measuring in order to predict the future.  As Yogi Berra famously said, “Predictions are hard, especially when they are about the future.” Naturally, we need to consider what is … Continue reading The Fallacy of Metrics

There has been considerable speculation across various media platforms at the efficacy of armour in the Russian invasion. There are plenty of photos of dead tanks and burning vehicles. Video showing the inefficacy of Russian reactive armour is beginning to appear and some people are now using this ‘data’ to question whether we need tanks in modern war. First, this is not data; the beginning … Continue reading Tanks

St Augustine heard these words, saw a bible and picked it up. The words mean ‘take up and read’ and so he did, thus changing his life. No, I am not telling you to read the Bible (not necessarily a bad idea). What I am doing is giving you the same advice that Dr Barry Hunt, one of my great professors at RMC gave all … Continue reading Tolle Lege

Hats off to my old friend Andy Leslie for admitting to the CBC that the situation in the Canadian Armed Forces is “dire.” Neighbours and friend have asked my what we can send to help our friends in Ukraine (and rest assured, they are our friends and deserve our help). My answer in the last week has usually ben: best wishes and blankets. I now … Continue reading Sending Help to Ukraine

I have been listening to comments from various pundits regarding the criminal Russian invasion force and two aspects have me intrigued: the Russians are doing poorly and many observers seem surprised. I have some experience with Russian (Soviet) forces from my days in Arms Control and none of this surprises me in the least. All the troops I observed were poorly trained and likewise poorly … Continue reading Pencils

Zeitenwende: the change of an era or turning the historic tide. It was the word that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz used before the Bundestag (Parliament) on 27 Nov during a speech on the Russian invasion of the Ukraine. In less than a half hour, the Bundestag in a rare show of near-unity voted to change three decades of military and foreign policy.  Up until yesterday, … Continue reading Law of Unintended Consequences

PME is a vast subject area and only marginally less controversial than the death penalty or whether there is other life in the universe. The point I wish make is that most PME is focused at the level of senior officers (whether it is good or bad is a separate issue). Most of the PME that is aimed at Non Commissioned Officers or junior officers … Continue reading Professional Military Education (PME)

The above paraphrasing of Clausewitz’s most famous dictum would imply that those who would understand war would do well to have some understanding of politics. This thought leads us to what occurred in the UN Security Council on Wednesday the 23rd. What the Russian Ambassador called a “special military operation” the Ukrainian Ambassador rightly called a declaration of war. Now I am not a big … Continue reading War is a Continuation of Politics

Winston Churchill famously said that it was better to “Jaw, Jaw than to War, War.” Most of us would agree; but what to do with someone who refuses to discuss the issue? How do you negotiate with someone who is psychotic and bent on using the military to settle disputes? How do you reason with someone like Vladimir Putin or Kim Jong-un? You do your … Continue reading Jaw Jaw

We spent a lot of blood and treasure helping Afghanistan attempt to enter the 21st century. I will not pass judgement on how successful we were because we did much good there. Militarily, I worry that we now have a couple of generations of soldiers who think that what they experienced during their tours there is the new baseline for warfare. It isn’t. Fighting insurgencies … Continue reading Afghan Legacy