Because the study of war and warfare has been relegated to so few universities and ironically becoming ever-wider discussed by the uninformed, there is a widespread ignorance regarding this highly complex life and death human activity. As today’s title implies, I have written about this specific subject at least three times. You might want to have a quick scan of those previous posts before you read on, just to refresh your memory.
Today’s issue is an aspect that is too often overlooked. The proclivity to use sports analogies when thinking about war can mislead (especially when used inanely like what US Secretary Hegseth did with his mindless NFL clips and explosions last week to demonstrate how “manly” he and his “warriors” are). Obviously war is not like sports, but when the analogy is used carefully, it can be instructive. A “win” in war is not like one in sports: there is no referee to indicate a score, call a foul play, or stop play to award a penalty. Further, the declaration of defeat is not made by the victor after a previously agreed duration. Certainly, we have seen cases where victory has been declared only to see it be tragically premature.
The decision on when a war is lost inevitably falls to the defeated. Think of Italy, which saw that the war was unwinnable and surrendered in September 1943. Many German generals saw the same thing shortly thereafter, but the circumstances were different and it took the near total devastation of their country before surrender was declared. Japan suffered a similar fate. Even after having been decimated not once but twice by nuclear weapons, there was still a pause, and the Americans continued planning for a ground invasion.[*]
Here is where the most uninitiated, and even some who know better, lose their way. There is a situation in war where victory is achieved by not by winning but by simply not losing. Allow me to explain, because they are not the same thing.
North Korea has yet to surrender and the Korean War, albeit technically, still rages. The current situation in Iran is a timely and similarly poignant example. The Islamic Republic is being bombarded almost continuously by the United States and Israel. There is little evidence that Iran could defeat these two enemies, either alone or together. But that does not mean that Iran will lose this latest war. In the current situation, victory for Iran — as defined by the Supreme Leader — will be defined by mere survival. The regime does not need to bring its attackers to their knees. There are no territorial objectives. Iran need only survive long enough for Israel and America to tire and stop attacking, which most likely (whatever declarations to the contrary by the American Tangerine -in-Chief) will result in a return to the status quo ante.
Too often war is seen as a zero-sum game. (Calling it a game is disingenuous since people are dying, but alas, that is the correct expression to describe the situation, especially if we are applying game theory.) In a situation like the current Iran War, it is conceivable that there will be three “winners”, three “losers” or any number of groupings, as absurd as that may seem. That does not count the “wins” and “losses” of the non-combatant powers like China, Russia, the scores of countries affected by the conflict whether militarily or economically, and let us not overlook the thousands of innocent people killed, maimed, or financially ruined. The delicate equilibrium, however unsatisfactory, that was in effect before the initial attack has been shattered and the famous “butterfly effect” is now in full swing. The geopolitical state is now even more complicated and more complex than before the bombing began.
How are we to determine who are the victors and who are the vanquished under such circumstances? Such questions are simplistic and not entirely applicable to situations like the one that the reckless and amateurish US administration has created not just for itself, but for us all.
[*] Nagasaki was destroyed 9 August 1945. The Japanese indicated willingness to surrender 10 August. The emperor announced publicly on 15 August.
The Enlightened Soldier 