Canada is and has been for many decades, a middle power. Middle powers are destined to choose wisely when picking friends, allies, and adversaries. I have long maintained that Canada has no “natural” enemies. Those whom we count as “enemies” are there by association. Our close friends and allies determine the list for one simple reason: Canada strives to be a friend to everyone and a foe to none. But such Utopian attitudes frequently clash with reality, and this truism is especially true when it comes to trade. It is a biological imperative that anything that isn’t changing is dying. When applied to nations, they must innovate and evolve to remain relevant and competitive in a constantly changing world environment. 

From its inception, Canada has been a trading country. Beginning as “hewers of wood and drawers of water”, we grew to become a first world nation with one of the most open and best-functioning democracies of the Western world.  

British PM Lord Palmerston said in 1848: “We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow. 

In 1979 Henry Kissinger reputedly wrote that “America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests.” 

In a November 2025 op-ed in The Economist, Canadian PM Mark Carney wrote: “Nostalgia is not a strategy. We should not pine to go back to the world that was, we should focus on building something better. The twilight of multi-lateralism will be followed by the rise of plural lateralism. States that embrace variable geometry, weaving new networks and constructing pragmatic alliances will be best placed to thrive in this new age.” What does this mean? 

As a middle power, we rarely get to establish the rules. But that doesn’t mean that we are without influence. Our reliability in peace and war as both ally and partner has given us leverage. 

We need to move up the “value chain” in economic terms. It is instructive to return to the Old Testament phrase “hewers of wood and drawers of water”. The Gibeonites were condemned to this fate for attempting to deceive the Israelites. Our role was not a condemnation. We chose it for ourselves and now we must choose to use our ingenuity and talent for innovation to create more added value. (see my previous post on bitumen) But even as we move up the value chain, we must learn from our past. We have for too long been locked into relationships that were easy for us. We sold too much our resources to too few clients, putting us in precarious positions. 

99.9% of our natural gas to US; 

over 94% aluminum went to the US; 

90% of our steel  

and 95% of our crude oil to US).  

65% canola to the US with all of the rest going to a single client (China) 

The PM seems to have deeply understood the precariousness of our situation, and he and his ministers seem to be pushing his ministers to expand our relationships to other trading blocs. This is neither a small nor a simple evolution. It will take time and it will take difficult negotiations. 

Let’s turn to military theory. Clausewitz and Sun Tzu (the first a theorist and the second a philosopher) have much to say about allies. Europe seems to have awakened from its slumber and realized that for too long it was too reliant upon a single ally. They became complacent and have awoken to discover that their protector of seven decades has openly stated that it will now side with their enemy. The US backs Russia and not Europe. But this is not all bad. European GDPs are deeply integrated and with leadership and vision can slough off their addiction to America. Like Canada, they need to diversify and “embrace variable geometry, weaving new networks and constructing pragmatic alliances.” Does this all mean that we need to “abandon” the US? No. But it does mean that we need to remind them that being our friend comes with obligations like fairness, good manners and the rule of law. 

Let me close with another statement by Secretary Kissinger from 1968: “It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal.”