On 18 Dec 2024, I commented on the incoming US administration and used the mythology of Götterdämmerung, the “Twilight of the Gods”, a story that weaves themes of betrayal, love, power, and destiny, culminating in the destruction of the gods, and the world they inhabit. I won’t repeat it; you can re-read the post for yourself.

You may be familiar with the term Pax Americana, which is an echo of Pax Britannica, itself an echo of Pax Romana. These terms refer to long stretches of peace because a single nation enforced an international order that offered stability, social justice, and economic growth. From the end of World War Two until recently that one country was the United States. Either alone or more often in concert with various partners, America gave the world one of the longest and most stable periods in recorded history. It has not been flawless; it has not been an idyll; but compared to the brutality that it replaced, it was a startling achievement.

And here is where the current occupants of the “Gold House” lose their way. The American administration’s publication of its National Security Strategy and the proclamations of the president and members of his inner circle, the claims that they are not constrained by international laws or even by norms, has wiped away any pretence of America being willing to lead the world in a law-based, collegial manner. What that means is that — contrary to MAGA’s mistaken belief — EVERYONE is about to get poorer and less secure, and that includes average Americans.

Capital does not flow freely during insecurity, either domestically or internationally. If you are an investor, or a corporation with future plans, you and your money will seek security. Canada, with all of our internal petty squabbles, is a good case in point. If you have invested heavily in the Canadian oil sands and the pipeline that moves that oil to the US refineries and you have more cash to invest, will you pick up the phone and call your friends in Alberta or will you roll the dice in Caracas? The answer is (or should be) self-evident. But such decisions and investments take time.

As I have said previously, Europe has awakened, albeit too slowly, to the risks posed by the active dismantling of Pax Americana, but it is clearly awake today. The leaders of Britain, France, Germany et al have openly reminded America that threatening Denmark (Greenland) will have consequences. No, Europe will not attack America, but anyone who thinks that the wilful destruction of the NATO alliance by a single country will go unanswered, or soon be forgotten, is mistaken. It will not be immediate. It will not be violent. But there will be consequences. European history dwarfs anything that has happened since a group of British colonies threw a temper tantrum on the North American coastline. Europeans have long memories.

Pundits have been talking and writing about the “decline of the American Empire” for almost two decades and it may indeed be happening. But empires do not crash like stock markets. They decay, dissolve, and become irrelevant over the course of decades. American society is famously ahistorical.* How could the most powerful country in the world become just another player? Not possible. America is Number One and “always has been.”

No, it isn’t and no, it hasn’t been. But to paraphrase Ebeneezer Scrooge in asking the Ghost of Christmas Yet To Come, “Does this have to be?” The answer is “no”, there is time to change course, to once again seek the moral high ground that America held for so long. Like Scrooge’s awakening to his lack of sympathy for the poor and his lack of humanity, Americans can choose leaders who can save their country. One thing is certain, however. The current group is bad for everyone.

In my 18 Dec 2024 post, I closed with a 2500 year-old expression that seemed appropriate to describe what had befallen American voters in November. It remains appropriate: “Whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad.”

Quos Deus vult perdere, prius dementat. 

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* From the American dictionary Merriam-Webster: not concerned with or related to history, historical development, or tradition; also: historically inaccurate or ignorant.