Most readers will recognized Carl von Clausewitz’s most often cited statement that “War is the continuation of politics by other means.” This declaration, often misinterpreted — even by famous military thinkers like chiefs of the German General Staff — is pregnant with meaning. Today, I would like to share an incident that I have thought of regularly in the nearly four decades since it occurred. I am going to generalize the incident and perhaps be guilty of a bit of dissembling in order to protect some of my Bundeswehr colleagues who shared this experience with me. I ask for your understanding.

During my two years at the Führungsakademie (the German Armed Forces Command and General Staff College), we frequently discussed, both openly and privately, what a triggering of NATO’s Article 5 might mean.* Not all my German classmates were big fans of the US or its military, and a few were openly hostile to how the US military often continued to behave as an occupying power in their homeland. This was the 1980s. We had two French Army officers on our course, but they were excluded from small portions of the curriculum because at that time France had withdrawn from the integrated military component of NATO for reasons, which some felt were in direct opposition to American dominance within the alliance.

During a visit to NATO headquarters in Brussels, the German students were ordered to attend a one-hour “German Eyes Only” briefing from the German Deputy SACEUR. They were told NOT to share the briefing with anyone on the course. We foreigners opted to go to the officers’ mess and have an early lunch during which my American, British, Italian, and French colleagues speculated on what was being said. In wide-eyed naiveté, I simply sat and listened to my more politically astute colleagues.

The speculation leaned solidly toward the belief that our German colleagues were being told that the time was ripe for Germany to rise and break free from its subservient role in the alliance, and that in partnership with France, it might well be time for Europe to throw off the shackles of American pre-eminence and to lead in the defence of a unified Europe. After all, wasn’t Germany the economic engine of the entire continent?

(An aside is warranted. My French colleagues agreed with this conjecture, believing that they, as an independent nuclear power — a world power, as they kept reminding us — had every right to lead the alliance. The French president had said exactly that in a speech only months before, and to be honest, it was a solid argument. The Americans and Brits did not see that Germany would accept French leadership, and the Italian was inscrutably silent on the matter.)

When our Bundeswehr colleagues rejoined us for lunch they made polite apologies, and the matter was set aside. However, later that evening several close friends shared with me what had been briefed, as the Germans say Unter vier Augen (under four eyes). The speculation had been spot-on, and the question was how long it would take to supplant American leadership as well as what arrangements could be made with the French.

In the following decade, the Berlin Wall fell, Europe unilaterally disarmed, Canada left Europe, and the French and Germans attempted multiple times (with limited success) to create Franco-German units and formations. Although sentiments had not really changed, the US continued to lead NATO, much to the growing annoyance of France and continued unease of the Germans.

All of that has been pushed aside by an openly arrogant and flagrantly rude American administration. The dangerously awkward vice president has insulted all Europeans, and his boss has frequently declared that he would not automatically come to Europe’s aid if Article 5 were invoked. Treaties be damned. The European reaction has — for Europeans — been swift. Germany has shrugged off its self-imposed disarmament with a spending plan not seen in generations. The French are producing more weapons than ever and reminding their EU colleagues of American perfidy (remember the US-Aussie submarine debacle), while at the same time signalling to Russia that ONLY the French control French nukes and that they support Ukraine without conditions, including the deployment of French Air Force nuclear armed aircraft beyond French sovereign soil.

I have often joked that the French have been yearning to rule Europe again since the demise of Napoleon Bonaparte. The current American administration may well have handed them their dream. Time will tell.

* Article 5 is a cornerstone of collective defence. It stipulates that an armed attack against one member is considered an attack against all, and triggers a collective response.