The famous Spanish-American philosopher, essayist, poet, and novelist, is often quoted for his admonition regarding those who forget the lessons of the past. We are currently living through three examples of his warning, each capable of igniting the fuse of another world war. The first is the People’s Republic of China; the second is the Russian Federation; and the third is MAGA America.

All three examples have connections to military thought and theory, even if only the Russian example seems directly relatable. Let’s have a look.

Few revolutions in human history were as bloody and as tragic as the Chinese Revolution which began in 1949. Mao Zedong, who famously said that political power grew from the barrel of a gun (an interesting reversal of Clausewitz’s dictum that war was the continuation of policy), created modern China. After Mao’s death, there seemed to many that real possibilities existed for China to join the remainder of the world and free its citizens from repressive government and the concomitant poverty that it had engendered. Hundreds of millions of Chinese peasants moved to the cities and prosperity as the country appeared to embrace a form of restricted open-market capitalism. Then came Xi Jinping and his death grip on the Chinese Communist Party. Prosperity seemed to increase even as an ever-growing proportion of the nation’s wealth poured into expanding the size of China’s military.

We saw a parallel form of kabuki theatre after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989, and the despotic rise of the Russian Federation. Overtures from the West were increasingly rebuffed as Russia returned to its historical preference of oligarchic government with an attendant growth of the Russian military, which up until its “special military operation” against Ukraine in Feb of 2022, had most of the world’s pundits convinced of its professional prowess (shades of the “elite” Iraqi Republican Guard). Russia now finds itself in an existential war of its own making with battlefield losses not seen since battles like Vimy Ridge or the Somme. Current casualties even make the Red Army’s estimated 350,000 casualties incurred in taking Berlin (Apr-May 1945) seem paltry — as incredible as that may sound.

For more than a decade some authors have been predicting the decline and fall of the American Empire, a subject that was mostly considered impossible if not taboo. Americans were convinced that because they were America, they would escape the hubris of history. Unlike previous empires, they would lead the world forever. Why? Because, well, they were America! Look up the word tautology. But, although the American imperium was somewhat different from those previous, the solution to decline looks very similar. The reason America is in decline is not its own fault. It is the fault of the rest of the world and America must now punish the rest of the world for imposing this decline upon it. No. It is not.

Where does Santayana come in? If the three countries just mentioned above had learned from the past, they would not have taken the paths they have chosen. China would have realized that it grew from an impoverished, isolated peasant state into a world power by dint of economic reform and the fact that its military did not directly threaten the world order. They have done the opposite. Russia would have seen the opportunity to become a functioning member of the world economic order, where its citizens enjoyed a better life, and the spectre of Russian tanks was not ever-present. Not to mention reading Russian military history. Even a cursory reading would easily demonstrate that Russian military prowess has been a hollow shell even from the time of the Czars.

America is perhaps the saddest example of the three as it stumbles angry, disheveled, and disunited towards an economic cliff. This once benign behemoth, the world’s only hyperpower and wealthiest nation in the history of humanity seems determined to commit national suicide. It is the apocalyptic cult of Jim Jones multiplied manifold. In the process, all of its friends and trading partners have learned a new lesson: detach from perfidious Uncle Sam. He cannot be trusted.

I do not wish to end on a sour note for I am at my core a positive person. We would be wise to remember the admonition of America’s greatest champion of human rights, Dr Martin Luther King Jr, when he told us that the arc of the moral universe was long, but that it bent towards justice. Patience is called for.

Teaser. For those who may have enjoyed my RUSI presentation on the Main Battle Tank, I am currently putting the finishing touches on a short book stemming from that presentation. Please stay tuned.