This week we’ve seen the collapse of one of the most brutal, corrupt inhumane regimes of the past half-century. Of course, I speak of the end of the Syrian dictatorship. What replaces the Idiot-Dentist-in-Chief (Assad) is anybody’s guess, but the speed of the collapse is a cautionary tale.

Humans prefer stability. Not just emotionally, but also for the predictability that stability lends to every day life. Business demands stability because investors, both big and small, want to believe that if they risk their money in order to get a reasonable return on investment (ROI) that stability lets them sleep at night. But stability may be coming to an end. When? I have NO idea. I am not in the prediction business. I do wonder, however, how US business will react to some of Mr Trump’s impulsive decision-making. I cannot see Trump’s belief in Elon Musk — another impulsive man — turning out well for anyone. Both men LOVE Hungary’s Viktor Orban, but a deep dive will show you that Orban has all but ruined Hungary’s economy. What was once a thriving country is now rated as the EU’s second poorest nation.

Where am I going with this? Russia. I have been saying for two years that Russia is a dead man walking. The economy is in a slow downward spiral. Putin has put the economy on a war footing to that extent that 40% of their GDP is focused on making weapons. This bears a haunting resemblance to the USSR (Putin’s fever dream). But now combine the loss of an estimated 1,500 young men PER DAY fighting in Ukraine and the story becomes more desperate. I visited Russia in 1990 and at that time a ruble was worth .01 USD. Today it is worth even LESS than that. What does this mean? In my opinion, if the EU (Canada and the US have been fickle) can keep Ukraine afloat through the winter, Putin will be doomed. Will he launch a nuclear strike? I don’t believe he will. He may be inept, but he is not insane. Who knows?

The point is that we may well be reaching a Gladwellian “tipping point” where Russians are no longer willing to put up with this slow death. Hard to say, but I maintain that he remains a dead man walking.

PS: The title is borrowed from Hemmingway’s The Sun Also Rises, where one of the characyters asks another how he went broke.