I was recently listening to a podcast from a retired British Army Intelligence officer regarding the possibilities of a widening of the Ukraine War. Although I agreed with much of what he was saying, one aspect struck me a pure fear mongering and I feel it necessary to comment. The scenario was what he termed “pivot to Asia” and it involved dragging almost the entire globe into a nuclear conflict. Here is the scenario:

Next year, Ukraine is somehow convinced to let Russia keep the territory it has taken in order to buy peace. Xi Jinping sees this development and says to himself “It has only taken three years for the West to forgive the Russian invasion. I can accept that, and so he invades Taiwan. This then (somehow) triggers Japan to reclaim the Kuril Islands, since they have changed their constitution and rebuilt their military. The next domino is Kim Jong Un. He says to himself “the West is focused elsewhere and cannot support S. Korea. Time to nuke Seoul.” He does so and then crosses the border in force.

This chain of events appears possible but is little more than a fever dream. Yes, it is true that this type of chain of events is what happened in 1938, but as I have said repeatedly, history does NOT repeat itself. Granted, pieces of this “kill-chain” may well happen as discrete events but there are so many flaws and so many alternate paths at each step that there is no way to predict ANY outcome.

I will not go on at length but there are a couple of glaring points that beg to be made. First is that barring the death of President Zelenskyy and his deputies, Ukraine has made it clear that they will NEVER trade land for peace. Unlike the Int Offr in question, the Ukrainians know that doing so is akin to paying blackmail; the demands never stop.

As I have said in these pages, Russia has a losing hand and is playing it badly. Calling for N Korean troops is an obvious cri de Coeur. Such an act is NOT what a self-proclaimed superpower does if it is “winning” a war. Putin remains a dead man walking. The only question is how long does he have.

China can certainly invade Taiwan at will. But attacking and winning are two different things. Subduing Taiwan is a challenge that the Chinese cannot accomplish. Stop looking at how many ships they have and how many sparkly medals all those paper generals wear. The PLA is untested in combat and has not conducted a REAL exercise in its entire existence. The ONLY way China can take Taiwan is if the Taiwanese give it away. Do not count on that.

The unspoken premise above is that the US will not keep its promise to come to Taiwan’s aid. If the Orange Circus Clown wins the election, that may be true but if the Democrats win, count on at least two fleets to be in the Strait of Formosa as soon as the PLAN and PLA begin their crossing. That does not consider what will happen to every Chinese flagged merchant vessel anywhere on the seas. They’ll get clear messages: surrender or go to the bottom. Chaina can barely feed itself now; how will they with no merchant fleet.

N Korea is Cuba with nuclear weapons. Their Dear Leader is a madman, so predicting what he’ll do is like buying a Super 7 lottery ticket. Might he nuke Soule? Maybe, but it would be his last conscious act and likely be the end of the Hermit Kingdom since the US could easily turn most of the county into a glass covered wildlife preserve within minutes of the detonation over Seoul. If nothing else, the N Korean military would be immolated as they clustered in their vehicles on the border.

Japan’s pre-emptive strike on the Kuril Islands is a head scratcher. The country cannot sustain its population and the scenario calls for a war of aggression? Where will the soldiers come from?

To paraphrase an old saying as regards the scenario: if it smells like horseshit and tastes like horseshit, then it’s undoubtedly horseshit.