Much has been written and said about the recent Ukrainian “invasion” of Russia. Of course, it is not an invasion and contrary to what some commentators are calling it, this is not a counterattack either. It is best considered under the rubric of “countermove.”

There has been endless speculation on why Ukraine has done this. Most agree that at least part of the reason was to take the war to Russia’s doorstep. It is certainly also as a morale boost to the Ukrainian fighters (and a morale hit against Russia). The action clearly demonstrates the tactical and operational incompetence of the Russians. Whether it will also demonstrate strategic incompetence remains to be seen by what happens next.

Will the territory be held, will the incursion continue to grow, where is it headed? None of these questions have been answered by Ukraine but at the risk of adding myself to the list of commentators who are merely guessing, it is my belief that shortly, the Ukrainians will turn southward to threaten the Lines of Communications keeping Russians alive in Crimea. If that happens, then look for the Kerch bridge to be struck. Those two actions together will either cause a massive entrapment of Russian forces or a large scale withdrawal.

One thing is certain; the Russians are scrambling to come to grips with their own incompetence.